Oil Demand expected to decrease
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) has analyzed how oil and gas production will be affected in a net-zero world, where countries achieve their climate goals. The regulator's annual report examined scenarios in which global carbon emissions reach net-zero by 2050, resulting in a decline in oil and gas production in Canada due to falling prices and demand. The decline could begin as early as 2026. Climate experts warn that this analysis raises questions about the future of fossil fuel use and production in Canada. The report also highlights an expanded role for cleaner energy sources such as hydro, wind, solar, nuclear, and hydrogen in Canada's future.
The rate at which other countries reduce their emissions will significantly impact the demand for Canadian oil and gas exports. The timing of the peak in oil and gas production in Canada depends on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These projections could influence decisions regarding expanding oil production and investing in carbon capture technologies to mitigate emissions. The report emphasizes the importance of investing public money in projects that will remain competitive in the long term as oil demand declines. The analysis also indicates a need for Canada's oil and gas industry to increase carbon capture during production.
The CER's scenarios indicate a significant increase in clean electricity generation in Canada to support the transition away from fossil fuels, with wind energy projected to grow substantially. Wind power is considered one of the cheapest energy sources, and its cost advantage over traditional power plants is expected to continue growing.
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